No Warnings

####018005407####
FXUS63 KDMX 280501
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1159 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE HRRR WAS RIGHT ON TARGET WITH DEVELOPMENT NOW OCCURRING 
IN NWRN MO...SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED MENTION CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS 
THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.  ALTHOUGH 
16Z HRRR AND A FEW OTHER 12Z MODELS SUGGEST SOMETHING WILL DEVELOP 
IN WARM SECTOR...POSSIBLY ALONG SW-NE CU AXIS NEAR KCNC/KOXV...AT 
THE MOMENT FEEL THAT ANYTHING WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MN MCS MATURES AND 
REACHES NRN IA.  00Z SPC/NSSL WRFS AND 12Z DMX WRF RUNS ALL SUGGEST 
KEEPING IA DRY THROUGH 03Z WITH CONVECTION JUST ENTERING NRN IA 
SHORTLY AFTER THAT TIME.  THIS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHAT 
WE HAVE GOING...SO LITTLE CHANGES WITH LIKELIES OVERNIGHT.  
ESTIMATED EFFECTIVE SHEAR 35KTS OR MORE SEEMS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT 
CONSIDERING THE INSTABILITY FOR SVR WX...MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND WIND 
THREAT.  HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE TOO WITH HIGH PWS AND WCDS...VERY 
SIMILAR TO ENVIRONMENT WITH RECENT EVENTS.  WE HAVE DRIED OUT 
SOMEWHAT RECENTLY AND BOTH MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST 
STORM MOTIONS FAST ENOUGH THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOT WARRANTED FOR 
THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.  THE COLD 
FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE STATE TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.  THIS SHOULD 
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHEAST IA FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY 
AFTERNOON.  CAPES BETWEEN 1500-3000 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE 
BOUNDARY BUT SHEAR NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.  INSTABILITY SHOULD 
STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG STORMS BUT DURING PEAK HEATING THE 
BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA SO SEVERE THREAT WILL BE 
RELEGATED TO ANY CONVECTION IN THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN 
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  FOR THURSDAY NIGHT 
AND FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST AFFECTING MAINLY THE 
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
OVER MN ALSO PUSHES EAST THROUGH THIS TIME.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED 
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN MN BUT AS IT SAGS TO THE EAST 
SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY WORK THEIR WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST 
IA IN THE MORNING.  THE FRONT THEN SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 
DAY FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG BUT 
THIS TIME SHEAR IS BETTER OVER THE EAST SO I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE 
SOME SEVERE STORMS NORTHEAST EARLY ON THEN OVER PERHAPS OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY BUT THE BETTER SHEAR DOES MOVE EAST INTO 
IL BY THAT TIME.  IN ANY EVENT...ANOTHER EPISODE OF STRONG STORMS 
WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.  

THE WEEKEND THEN DRIES OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT 
BUILDS INTO CENTRAL IOWA.  ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH YET 
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING/STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHING ACROSS 
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THIS TIME.  THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON 
DEVELOPING AN MCS IN SOUTHERN MN WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SHORTWAVE  
WHILE THE EURO STRENGTHENS THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE CWA AND A 
LITTLE LATER.  ALL IN ALL EITHER SOLUTIONS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN IA 
ABOUT THE SAME...UNLESS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS A LITTLE DEEPER AND 
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH.  IF THAT OCCURS THEN NORTHERN/NORTHEAST IA 
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE UNDER THE GUN.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THOUGH 
BETWEEN THE EURO AND THE GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE SO I 
GENERALLY DID NOT MAKE LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.  
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING 
IN FOR TUESDAY  WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY IN OUR GENERAL ZONAL FLOW.  THE GFS IS WAY MORE AGGRESSIVE 
WITH THIS DEVELOPING AN MCW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE AS 
THE EURO FIZZLES THIS OUT DURING THE DAY.  THE KEY DIFFERENCE HERE 
IS THE EURO HAS THE SURFACE SYSTEM WAY TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS 
SLIDES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED 
TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE DAYS WEAR ON.  LITTLE CHANGES WERE 
MADE TO TEMPS AS THE CURRENT TREND WAS GOOD.

&&